How Much Should You Increase Your Meta Ad Budget for Black Friday 2026?

What AdScale’s 2025 data reveals about spending increases, rising ad costs and ROAS.

Deciding how much to increase your Black Friday ad budget gets harder when orders and advertising costs rise at the same time. Last year’s results offer a useful starting point.

In AdScale’s 2025 analysis, stores that increased their average daily Meta ad spend by 25–150% during the Black Friday period recorded median ROAS gains of approximately 35–36% compared with their October baseline. Stores that increased spending to 2.5 times their baseline or more recorded a smaller median gain of 26%.

That does not make 25–150% the right increase for every store. These were observed results, not a controlled test of budget strategies.

For 2026, use the findings to plan spending scenarios. Then let your campaign performance, promotional margins and available inventory determine how far you scale.

Key takeaways#

• Higher ad costs did not automatically mean weaker returns. Black Friday week CPM rose approximately 57% compared with October, while reported ROAS increased from 2.78 to 3.09.
• The middle spending groups recorded the largest median ROAS gains. Stores spending 25–150% more than their October baseline saw median improvements of approximately 35–36%.
• Costs were rising before Black Friday week. The increase was visible in the week beginning November 16, 2025.
• October offered cheaper reach than the November peak. That creates an opportunity to test campaigns before competition intensifies.
• A spending increase needs a business case. Higher revenue or reported ROAS does not necessarily mean higher profit.

What is this analysis based on?#

AdScale analyzed Meta advertising performance for eCommerce stores on its platform, covering Facebook and Instagram activity from September 2025 through early January 2026.

Two comparisons appear in this article:

• Weekly performance: Selected weeks compared with the October weekly average.
• Spending groups: Average daily spend during November 22–December 1, 2025, compared with October 1–21, 2025.

The second comparison uses a subset of accounts with spending in both periods. Its results describe a ten-day Black Friday shopping window, rather than Black Friday alone.

ROAS, or return on ad spend, means Meta-reported conversion value divided by advertising spend. It reflects platform attribution, not profit or a measurement of sales caused exclusively by advertising.

CPM is the cost per 1,000 impressions. CPC is the cost per click.

To show how costs changed without publishing absolute amounts, the table uses an index where October equals 100. A CPM index of 157 means impressions cost approximately 57% more than in October.

These findings reflect the stores included in AdScale’s analysis and may not represent every Meta advertiser. They provide context for planning, not a forecast of your store’s results.

When do Meta ad costs rise before Black Friday?#

In this dataset, costs were already climbing around two weeks before Black Friday.

CPM was approximately 4% above the October baseline in the week beginning November 9. It climbed to 24% above baseline the following week and reached 57% above baseline during Black Friday week.

That matters because waiting until the sale begins to assess advertising costs can leave you working with an outdated baseline.

Source: AdScale’s 2025 Meta advertising analysis. Selected weeks shown. October = 100 for CPM and CPC; index values are rounded.

Compared with October, Black Friday week brought:

• Approximately 57% higher CPM.
• Approximately 44% higher CPC.
• Approximately 11% higher reported ROAS.

The practical lesson is to prepare for higher advertising costs before the peak. The exact timing and size of any increase in 2026 will depend on your market and campaigns.

Does a higher CPM mean you should reduce spending?#

A higher CPM alone is not enough to make that decision.

During Black Friday week in this sample, impressions and clicks became more expensive, yet reported ROAS improved. Advertisers paid more to reach shoppers but also generated more attributed revenue per unit of ad spend.

The data does not establish exactly what drove that improvement. Conversion rates, order values, offers and the mix of shoppers may all have contributed.

For your store, read CPM alongside the numbers that determine whether the campaign is commercially worthwhile:

• Cost per acquisition: What are you paying to generate an order?
• ROAS: How much attributed revenue are you generating per unit of spend?
• Promotional margin: What remains after discounts and the costs of fulfilling the order?

If CPM rises while acquisition cost and returns remain within your targets, the campaign may still justify additional spending. In case costs rise and returns weaken, investigate before increasing the budget. If returns are weakening, review the common reasons for low ROAS and how to improve it before committing more budget.

What does the data reveal about Black Friday ad spending?#

The strongest median ROAS gains appeared in the two middle spending groups.

Stores that increased average daily spend by approximately 25–75% recorded a median ROAS improvement of 35%. Those increasing spending by approximately 75–150% recorded a median improvement of 36%.

Source: AdScale’s 2025 Meta advertising analysis. Spending ratios compare November 22–December 1 with October 1–21. Range labels are approximate descriptions of the analysis groups.

The median ROAS change describes the middle account-level percentage change within each group. Pooled ROAS describes the group’s combined attributed revenue relative to its combined spending.

These measures answer different questions, so they will not necessarily move by the same percentage.

What the results suggest#

The relationship between spending growth and ROAS improvement was not a straight line. The highest-scaling group did not record the largest median ROAS gain.

That makes it worth planning several spending scenarios instead of assuming that the largest increase will produce the strongest efficiency improvement.

What the results do not prove#

The analysis does not show that a particular spending increase caused better performance.

Stores with stronger offers or improving campaign results may have been more willing to increase spending. Different product categories, customer mixes and starting ROAS levels may also have influenced the results.

It also does not show that stores with stable spending missed a profitable opportunity. They may have faced inventory limits, tighter margins or other constraints.

Treat the spending ranges as planning benchmarks, not instructions to increase your budget by a fixed percentage.

Should you spend more in October or save budget for Black Friday?#

Give each period a clear job.

October CPM was approximately 36% lower than during Black Friday week. That made October a lower-cost period for reaching shoppers compared with the November peak.

It does not prove that every store should move more spending into October or prioritize retargeting audience growth over sales.

A practical approach is to use the weeks before your promotion to answer questions that will affect your spending decisions:

• Which products generate orders at an acceptable acquisition cost?
• Which creative messages attract buyers?
• Does the offer leave enough margin after advertising costs?
• Can shoppers complete checkout smoothly?
• Are your tracking and reporting consistent?

Use this preparation window to create and test ad creative with AI, giving each variation a clear message and performance goal.

Keep budget available for the sale itself, when you can evaluate performance under the actual promotion.

The goal is to enter Black Friday with tested campaigns and room to respond.

How should you set your Black Friday ad budget for 2026?#

Start with your store’s economics, then use the historical benchmarks to pressure-test your plan.

The following steps are planning recommendations. They were not tested as part of this analysis.

1. Establish a baseline you can trust#

Calculate average daily spend, acquisition cost and ROAS over a representative period before your promotion.

Check whether unusual sales, tracking problems or stock shortages distorted the results. Use the same reporting definitions when comparing your baseline with the sale period.

2. Set your return target using promotional margins#

A campaign can generate more revenue while leaving less money behind.

Account for the discount, product costs, shipping subsidies and other variable costs when deciding what acquisition cost or return you can accept. An ordinary-week target may not fit a heavily discounted offer.

3. Model several spending scenarios#

Use your baseline to compare what a 25%, 75% or 150% increase would mean for total spending over your promotion.

These are scenarios drawn from the historical ranges, not recommended targets. Include a stable-spend scenario too.

For each option, ask whether you have the inventory, margin and fulfillment capacity to support the additional orders you hope to generate.

4. Define when to increase, hold or reduce spending#

Make the decision rules before the campaign becomes busy.

Increase spending when results meet your commercial targets and you can fulfill additional demand. Hold when the evidence is unclear. Reduce spending or address the underlying problem when performance falls below your acceptable level.

Allow for reporting delays and avoid reacting to every short-term fluctuation.

Learn how AI budget optimization for eCommerce uses campaign and store performance signals to guide spending decisions.

5. Check what happens after you increase spending#

An acceptable average ROAS can hide weaker performance from additional spending.

Compare spending growth with the additional revenue it produces. Review acquisition costs, product mix and margins alongside the platform’s reported return.

Your next increase should have its own justification.

Should you keep advertising after Christmas?#

Keep the option open, but reassess the offer and your targets.

In the week beginning December 28, CPM fell approximately 18% below the October average. Reported ROAS reached 3.34, compared with 3.09 during Black Friday week.

However, the week beginning December 7 tells a different story: CPM had fallen from the Black Friday peak, but ROAS had also declined to 2.47.

Cheaper advertising does not automatically produce stronger returns.

Late December may be worth evaluating for your store, but decisions should reflect remaining inventory, customer demand and whether your offer still makes sense after Christmas.

Your follow-up plan should also address how to turn first-time BFCM buyers into repeat customers.

Frequently asked questions#

How much should I increase my Meta ad budget for Black Friday?

There is no universal percentage. In AdScale’s 2025 sample, stores increasing daily spend by 25–150% recorded the largest median ROAS gains among the groups analyzed. Use that range to model possible scenarios, then decide based on your promotional margins, campaign results and inventory.

When should I start preparing my Black Friday campaigns?

Prepare your offers, creative, tracking and spending scenarios before the sale begins. In the 2025 dataset, CPM was already rising in the week beginning November 16. That supports preparing ahead of the peak, but it does not establish a fixed date for increasing your 2026 budget.

Should I reduce my budget if Meta CPM increases?

Assess more than CPM. In the dataset, Black Friday week CPM increased approximately 57% compared with October while reported ROAS also improved. Review acquisition cost, return and promotional margins together. Higher reach costs can still support worthwhile campaigns when the resulting orders justify the expense.

Does a higher ROAS mean my Black Friday campaign is more profitable?

Not necessarily. ROAS compares attributed revenue with advertising spend. It does not subtract product costs, discounts, shipping subsidies or other expenses. Use it alongside your margins and operating costs when assessing performance. A campaign’s reported return can improve without producing an equivalent improvement in profit.

Do these findings apply to Google Ads?

This analysis covers Meta advertising on Facebook and Instagram. It does not establish how Google Ads costs or returns behave during Black Friday. Use separate channel data when planning Google spending, and assess total store performance alongside platform reporting when deciding how to allocate your overall advertising budget. For the broader planning approach, explore how advertising automation coordinates Google and Meta campaigns.

Give every budget increase a reason#

AdScale’s 2025 data shows that higher Black Friday advertising costs can coexist with stronger reported returns. It also shows that the largest spending increases did not deliver the largest median ROAS gains.

For your 2026 plan, prepare several spending scenarios, set targets that reflect your promotional margins and keep checking performance as you scale.

The right Black Friday budget is one your results justify and your business can support.